Reality Check - Occupancy Rates Help Please

[Weaver]

Let's try this a different way...I don't trust the reports. I think they are in fact total BS. I don't even want real numbers, just a reality check. Several of you know what I am trying to do and the general area.
If we use K's gracious numbers knowing what we know she was at 6.5% in Podunk. Assuming all three rooms available for all 365 days.
Alrighty then....is 5-8% for the first full year in season a conservative but reasonable assumption?.

Alrighty then....is 5-8% for the first full year in season a conservative but reasonable assumption?

Do you think there is demand in the area for lodging? For the lodging you are offering?
I'd go as high as 10-20% for the first year. IF, IF, IF you market your buns off and there is demand. K had nothing in her town to start with. I'm assuming there's something already where you are that draws tourists.
.

Alrighty then....is 5-8% for the first full year in season a conservative but reasonable assumption?

Do you think there is demand in the area for lodging? For the lodging you are offering?
I'd go as high as 10-20% for the first year. IF, IF, IF you market your buns off and there is demand. K had nothing in her town to start with. I'm assuming there's something already where you are that draws tourists.

There is and there are several large festivals that draw from a large area as well. I was leaning toward 10% as a first year, I just don't want to over estimate and be trying to catch up, I would rather exceed expectations than kill myself trying to get that extra 1-2% Occ rate just to meet my predictions.
I will not be sleeping, I will be marketing 24/7 for the first two years I am sure.
.

The horse traffic will help you a lot. If I remember correctly, you will have 3 Interstates within a reasonable distance - 10 to 15 miles or how far are they. I can tell you from distance how you will do with the horse travel trade. I am VERY limited on rooms AND on stalls.
The ladies coming in tonight - the farm sighed and said OK - have 4 horses so it is the field for them as there are only 3 stalls. We have had a pro polo player transporting 14 polo ponies from Canada to SC once. Definitely the field. I have also been called by transporters with 7 to 10 VERY EXPENSIVE horses that I had to say no way because they needed stalls for each. I am in the Canada to the Carolinas and Florida route and the East coast to Ken tucky Hor se Pa rk corridor. From me they need something in the Carolinas if going to Florida (I-77 corridor).
.

The horse traffic will help you a lot. If I remember correctly, you will have 3 Interstates within a reasonable distance - 10 to 15 miles or how far are they. I can tell you from distance how you will do with the horse travel trade. I am VERY limited on rooms AND on stalls.
The ladies coming in tonight - the farm sighed and said OK - have 4 horses so it is the field for them as there are only 3 stalls. We have had a pro polo player transporting 14 polo ponies from Canada to SC once. Definitely the field. I have also been called by transporters with 7 to 10 VERY EXPENSIVE horses that I had to say no way because they needed stalls for each. I am in the Canada to the Carolinas and Florida route and the East coast to Ken tucky Hor se Pa rk corridor. From me they need something in the Carolinas if going to Florida (I-77 corridor).

Less than 3 miles on really nice roads to I 77 and 4 - 5 miles to 40. I am on to a second property and the other is now as a back up. This one is with better facilities, stables already there and I won't have to move buildings to make it right.
More money but ready to roll in less than 5 days from close, basically the time it will take to order feed, sheets, and stock the fridge. 6 class A stalls now, and room for another 6 just need stall fronts and feeders, hang the waterers and I am ready to stable anything from a $1M racehorse to a champion jumper.
Super sercure with CC tv in the barn. Fenced and cross fenced, roads to barn are paved not gravel, ample trailer parking and turn around. Much like the first place I showed you but more my style and only about 1 mile from that site. The second place with the log cabin, is not nearly as feasible as I had hoped the estimates came back on interior roads, new wells and getting electric to the new sites makes this other property a steal at twice the price.
I will be 5 hrs south on I-77 from you.

 

[gillumhouse]

Let's try this a different way...I don't trust the reports. I think they are in fact total BS. I don't even want real numbers, just a reality check. Several of you know what I am trying to do and the general area.
If we use K's gracious numbers knowing what we know she was at 6.5% in Podunk. Assuming all three rooms available for all 365 days.
Alrighty then....is 5-8% for the first full year in season a conservative but reasonable assumption?.

Alrighty then....is 5-8% for the first full year in season a conservative but reasonable assumption?

Do you think there is demand in the area for lodging? For the lodging you are offering?
I'd go as high as 10-20% for the first year. IF, IF, IF you market your buns off and there is demand. K had nothing in her town to start with. I'm assuming there's something already where you are that draws tourists.
.

Alrighty then....is 5-8% for the first full year in season a conservative but reasonable assumption?

Do you think there is demand in the area for lodging? For the lodging you are offering?
I'd go as high as 10-20% for the first year. IF, IF, IF you market your buns off and there is demand. K had nothing in her town to start with. I'm assuming there's something already where you are that draws tourists.

There is and there are several large festivals that draw from a large area as well. I was leaning toward 10% as a first year, I just don't want to over estimate and be trying to catch up, I would rather exceed expectations than kill myself trying to get that extra 1-2% Occ rate just to meet my predictions.
I will not be sleeping, I will be marketing 24/7 for the first two years I am sure.
.

The horse traffic will help you a lot. If I remember correctly, you will have 3 Interstates within a reasonable distance - 10 to 15 miles or how far are they. I can tell you from distance how you will do with the horse travel trade. I am VERY limited on rooms AND on stalls.
The ladies coming in tonight - the farm sighed and said OK - have 4 horses so it is the field for them as there are only 3 stalls. We have had a pro polo player transporting 14 polo ponies from Canada to SC once. Definitely the field. I have also been called by transporters with 7 to 10 VERY EXPENSIVE horses that I had to say no way because they needed stalls for each. I am in the Canada to the Carolinas and Florida route and the East coast to Ken tucky Hor se Pa rk corridor. From me they need something in the Carolinas if going to Florida (I-77 corridor).
.

The horse traffic will help you a lot. If I remember correctly, you will have 3 Interstates within a reasonable distance - 10 to 15 miles or how far are they. I can tell you from distance how you will do with the horse travel trade. I am VERY limited on rooms AND on stalls.
The ladies coming in tonight - the farm sighed and said OK - have 4 horses so it is the field for them as there are only 3 stalls. We have had a pro polo player transporting 14 polo ponies from Canada to SC once. Definitely the field. I have also been called by transporters with 7 to 10 VERY EXPENSIVE horses that I had to say no way because they needed stalls for each. I am in the Canada to the Carolinas and Florida route and the East coast to Ken tucky Hor se Pa rk corridor. From me they need something in the Carolinas if going to Florida (I-77 corridor).

Less than 3 miles on really nice roads to I 77 and 4 - 5 miles to 40. I am on to a second property and the other is now as a back up. This one is with better facilities, stables already there and I won't have to move buildings to make it right.
More money but ready to roll in less than 5 days from close, basically the time it will take to order feed, sheets, and stock the fridge. 6 class A stalls now, and room for another 6 just need stall fronts and feeders, hang the waterers and I am ready to stable anything from a $1M racehorse to a champion jumper.
Super sercure with CC tv in the barn. Fenced and cross fenced, roads to barn are paved not gravel, ample trailer parking and turn around. Much like the first place I showed you but more my style and only about 1 mile from that site. The second place with the log cabin, is not nearly as feasible as I had hoped the estimates came back on interior roads, new wells and getting electric to the new sites makes this other property a steal at twice the price.
I will be 5 hrs south on I-77 from you.
.

Let me know when you are a go. I will find out what horse publications you should consider. You are set up PERFECT for the north/south AND the east/west traffic! E-mail me - I have lost you in the ocean of contacts.

 

[Innkeep]

Let's try this a different way...I don't trust the reports. I think they are in fact total BS. I don't even want real numbers, just a reality check. Several of you know what I am trying to do and the general area.
If we use K's gracious numbers knowing what we know she was at 6.5% in Podunk. Assuming all three rooms available for all 365 days.
Alrighty then....is 5-8% for the first full year in season a conservative but reasonable assumption?.

Alrighty then....is 5-8% for the first full year in season a conservative but reasonable assumption?

Do you think there is demand in the area for lodging? For the lodging you are offering?
I'd go as high as 10-20% for the first year. IF, IF, IF you market your buns off and there is demand. K had nothing in her town to start with. I'm assuming there's something already where you are that draws tourists.
.

Alrighty then....is 5-8% for the first full year in season a conservative but reasonable assumption?

Do you think there is demand in the area for lodging? For the lodging you are offering?
I'd go as high as 10-20% for the first year. IF, IF, IF you market your buns off and there is demand. K had nothing in her town to start with. I'm assuming there's something already where you are that draws tourists.

There is and there are several large festivals that draw from a large area as well. I was leaning toward 10% as a first year, I just don't want to over estimate and be trying to catch up, I would rather exceed expectations than kill myself trying to get that extra 1-2% Occ rate just to meet my predictions.
I will not be sleeping, I will be marketing 24/7 for the first two years I am sure.
.

The horse traffic will help you a lot. If I remember correctly, you will have 3 Interstates within a reasonable distance - 10 to 15 miles or how far are they. I can tell you from distance how you will do with the horse travel trade. I am VERY limited on rooms AND on stalls.
The ladies coming in tonight - the farm sighed and said OK - have 4 horses so it is the field for them as there are only 3 stalls. We have had a pro polo player transporting 14 polo ponies from Canada to SC once. Definitely the field. I have also been called by transporters with 7 to 10 VERY EXPENSIVE horses that I had to say no way because they needed stalls for each. I am in the Canada to the Carolinas and Florida route and the East coast to Ken tucky Hor se Pa rk corridor. From me they need something in the Carolinas if going to Florida (I-77 corridor).
.

The horse traffic will help you a lot. If I remember correctly, you will have 3 Interstates within a reasonable distance - 10 to 15 miles or how far are they. I can tell you from distance how you will do with the horse travel trade. I am VERY limited on rooms AND on stalls.
The ladies coming in tonight - the farm sighed and said OK - have 4 horses so it is the field for them as there are only 3 stalls. We have had a pro polo player transporting 14 polo ponies from Canada to SC once. Definitely the field. I have also been called by transporters with 7 to 10 VERY EXPENSIVE horses that I had to say no way because they needed stalls for each. I am in the Canada to the Carolinas and Florida route and the East coast to Ken tucky Hor se Pa rk corridor. From me they need something in the Carolinas if going to Florida (I-77 corridor).

Less than 3 miles on really nice roads to I 77 and 4 - 5 miles to 40. I am on to a second property and the other is now as a back up. This one is with better facilities, stables already there and I won't have to move buildings to make it right.
More money but ready to roll in less than 5 days from close, basically the time it will take to order feed, sheets, and stock the fridge. 6 class A stalls now, and room for another 6 just need stall fronts and feeders, hang the waterers and I am ready to stable anything from a $1M racehorse to a champion jumper.
Super sercure with CC tv in the barn. Fenced and cross fenced, roads to barn are paved not gravel, ample trailer parking and turn around. Much like the first place I showed you but more my style and only about 1 mile from that site. The second place with the log cabin, is not nearly as feasible as I had hoped the estimates came back on interior roads, new wells and getting electric to the new sites makes this other property a steal at twice the price.
I will be 5 hrs south on I-77 from you.
.

I'm one of those PAII members who does not fill out the survey. Partly it's because my numbers are crap, also because I don't really figure all those numbers out because I'm semi-dyslexic when it comes to arithmetic. I have my quick books in its original box but haven't loaded it onto the computer--so I guess that means I'm number phobic as well as dyslexic, so I'm tired at the end of each month after I've figured out and paid the room and sales taxes.
But B&B going is not a high priority in my city or state (fewer B&B's in the state association than there are in Asheville NC), I tried blogging and facebooking for a year and got discouraged instead of more guests. I really hate to see my endeavor classed as a "hobby" because every year I've done better, and the revenue from the B&B pays for the insurance and utilities and advertising, I update my website, I've tried a variety of advertising strategies...and am located on one of the major roads in town. I still meet locals who have no idea that there's a B&B here.
Many Innmates have little or no local business whereas a significant percentage of my guests actually have a local connection either through business guests or family members visiting locals, or through the university.
I'm listed on the accommodations page of the university's website, have rack cards given to all freshmen parents who show up for orientation along with gift certificates given out at a drawing for the parents. Have tried ads on the campus newspaper's website, end up seeing parents for the first time on graduation weekend when everything else is full in town, then they say I wish we'd have known about your place 4 years ago, it's so much nicer than (whatever motel).
Sorry I've gotten a little off the topic, but it looks to me like you're going to have a specialty type of property, and I think predicting occupancy will literally be like throwing dice.

 

[Breakfast Diva]

I have filled out the PAII survey numerous times. I think they do get a good cross section of participants. The survey is anonymous, I don't see why someone should fib on the numbers. Now, I see all the time inns for sale that 'stretch' their numbers. Caught them at it too. So often they will say they have a high occupancy, on the listings where it states annual occupancy rate and they fill in what they have for 3 or 4 months during peak season. It's pretty foolish though....the same site usually asks for average room rate and when you do the math, the room rates and occupancy rates are way off from each other. Doh!!!

 

[Weaver]

I have filled out the PAII survey numerous times. I think they do get a good cross section of participants. The survey is anonymous, I don't see why someone should fib on the numbers. Now, I see all the time inns for sale that 'stretch' their numbers. Caught them at it too. So often they will say they have a high occupancy, on the listings where it states annual occupancy rate and they fill in what they have for 3 or 4 months during peak season. It's pretty foolish though....the same site usually asks for average room rate and when you do the math, the room rates and occupancy rates are way off from each other. Doh!!!.

I have filled out the PAII survey numerous times. I think they do get a good cross section of participants. The survey is anonymous, I don't see why someone should fib on the numbers. Now, I see all the time inns for sale that 'stretch' their numbers. Caught them at it too. So often they will say they have a high occupancy, on the listings where it states annual occupancy rate and they fill in what they have for 3 or 4 months during peak season. It's pretty foolish though....the same site usually asks for average room rate and when you do the math, the room rates and occupancy rates are way off from each other. Doh!!!

When I first started looking, I spent hours scratching my head thinking I must have missed something somewhere somehow. NOPE they lied!!! Doh is right, 30 years in sales, marketing, and accounting didn't get me counting on my toes, and useing an abacus.
When you look at the tax returns the numbers become much clearer. I walked from a great property because the numbers didn't jive. I figured if they were BSing on those numbers so much that I could figure it out without seeing the financials what the H*** else were they BSing on. If it walks like a duck.....gotta be a duck! I am not into ducks that want full price for a property that needs more work than it is worth for 4 months of OK occupancy and 8 months of boredome. They didn't have enough rooms to have the 4 months carry the 8.

 

[Joey Camb]

I have filled out the PAII survey numerous times. I think they do get a good cross section of participants. The survey is anonymous, I don't see why someone should fib on the numbers. Now, I see all the time inns for sale that 'stretch' their numbers. Caught them at it too. So often they will say they have a high occupancy, on the listings where it states annual occupancy rate and they fill in what they have for 3 or 4 months during peak season. It's pretty foolish though....the same site usually asks for average room rate and when you do the math, the room rates and occupancy rates are way off from each other. Doh!!!.

I have filled out the PAII survey numerous times. I think they do get a good cross section of participants. The survey is anonymous, I don't see why someone should fib on the numbers. Now, I see all the time inns for sale that 'stretch' their numbers. Caught them at it too. So often they will say they have a high occupancy, on the listings where it states annual occupancy rate and they fill in what they have for 3 or 4 months during peak season. It's pretty foolish though....the same site usually asks for average room rate and when you do the math, the room rates and occupancy rates are way off from each other. Doh!!!

When I first started looking, I spent hours scratching my head thinking I must have missed something somewhere somehow. NOPE they lied!!! Doh is right, 30 years in sales, marketing, and accounting didn't get me counting on my toes, and useing an abacus.
When you look at the tax returns the numbers become much clearer. I walked from a great property because the numbers didn't jive. I figured if they were BSing on those numbers so much that I could figure it out without seeing the financials what the H*** else were they BSing on. If it walks like a duck.....gotta be a duck! I am not into ducks that want full price for a property that needs more work than it is worth for 4 months of OK occupancy and 8 months of boredome. They didn't have enough rooms to have the 4 months carry the 8.
.

Another thing to watch is what caught my godmother on one of the properties she bought - maths was never her strong suit either however I would have twigged the money was too good -
What happened was the PO has either one or two holiday rental flats and was running the revenue through the bed and breakfast books as bookings to prop up the numbers - when she sold she was going to rent one full time and live in the other so she didn't care what their books looked like.
Therefore with the BB there was no chance of making the amount of money that the books showed!
Also this is something we got caught with and our neighbours as well! if the place comes furnished and you are paying for that make sure the mattresses are sound have a really good lie on them - we just saw the beds made up and being a bit british left it at that - got in found all the mattresses were pretty much down to the wire which with 12 bedrooms makes a lot of money to shell out all in one go and therefore we would have haggled that off the price - moral of the tail? test everything anf bounce on everything!

 

[Samster]

There's no magic bullet answer here for start up occupancy.
It depends....
Location, location, location and lodging need...specifically, an interest in B&B lodging. And how your reviews and name get out there.
Estimate very low and be pleasantly surprised (and prepared!!) if your occupancy numbers exceed your expectations.
JB is right that most owners will not share their occupancy numbers because it's tied too closely to their income. Most people don't reveal what they make annually in a corporate job, right?

Good luck!